Karnataka election has ended in a cliffhanger. BJP – 104; Congress – 78; JD(S) – 37; Others – 3. This is out of 222 seats. You need 112 to have majority in the legislative assembly in order to form the Government. No party has got clear majority to form the Government on its own. Seats are divided mainly in three parties, which have bitterly fought election against one-another.
So, how can the Government be formed now? First possibility is that two out of the three main parties form a post-election coalition to form the Government together.
Now, what are the possible two-party combinations?
BJP + Congress? But, it is impossible in the current situation.
Congress + JD(S)? Yes, that is what is happening. These two parties have come together to share the booty, and to keep the common enemy out (the biggest challenger in India now), namely, the BJP.
BJP + JD(S)? It could have been possible but Congress has acted smartly this time and has offered the post of King to the Kingmaker. By immediately offering CM post to JD(S), Congress appears to have clinched the deal. All past sins have been forgotten for the sake of power. After all, power is poison. Rahul’s mother had told him. Do you recall? Okay, here is the quote:
“My mother came to my room and cried… because she understands that power is poison…”.
So, for the sake of people of Karnataka, Congress has decided to consume poison of power once again. Isn’t it a great sacrifice? And, you must appreciate JD(S) leaders also. They are also sacrificing for the sake of Karnataka people, by consuming such poison. Not only the poison of power, these two parties have also to swallow the insults that they had heaped upon each-other during electioneering and before.
It is crystal clear that no other combination of any two parties can result in a Government having majority, than the combinations mentioned above.
But, is that all? Is it going to be a happy-ending for Congress and JD(S)? Are there any other options?
Yes, there are.
One alternative option is to have the elections again, which is not a viable option right now. At least, not immediately, since for about 6 months at least President’s rule may have to be tried if no viable Government is formed.
Another option may become available if some MLAs from a party form a splinter group and support some other party (such as BJP). But, this may require the splinter group itself to be recognized as the original party to avoid the anti-defection law. Else, the Speaker may have to deliberately keep the enquiry / decision relating to disqualification on the ground of defection pending for long time. This, though is not impossible, is quite difficult.
Yet another possible option is that some MLAs from a party (or from two parties) resign from their membership, thereby bringing the total strength of the elected members to less than 222. For example, if a minimum of 15 MLAs resign from their membership, the strength of elected members in the House reduces from 222 to 207. This means that the BJP’s number of 104 will now become a clear majority. But, for this to happen, you need approximately Rs. 1500 crore (or some similar attraction). Is it a big deal? No. It is peanuts in politics. At stake are not only thousands of crores that Karnataka can provide in next 5 years, but also the much bigger satisfaction of forming the Government and continuing the momentum in next elections.
So, my dear friend, the fact remains that rules of game are likely to be broken whether JD(S) + Congress form the Government, or whether BJP forms the Government.
Politics is not supposed to be ethical in India. It is not meant for honest persons. Politics is not for those whose hearts are weak. Throwing mud on each other is absolutely a part of the game.